Elon Musk makes 4 bold predictions for the next decade

January 12, 2026

From the January 06, 2026 interview with Peter Diamandis:

#1 Human lifespans will nearly double in the next decade

Asked what he thinks of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s prediction that human lifespans will double in the next decade, Elon replies, “That’s probably correct. I don’t know about doubling but a significant increase? Sure.”

Elon explains:

“I have long thought that longevity or semi-immortality is an extremely solvable problem. I don’t think it’s a particularly hard problem. When you consider the fact that your body is extremely synchronized in its age, the clock must be incredibly obvious . . . you’re programmed to die. And so if you change the program, you will live longer. In retrospect, the solution to longevity will seem obvious.”

#2 There will be more robot surgeons in 3 years than all surgeons on Earth today

“Right now there’s a shortage of doctors and great surgeons,” Elon begins. “It takes a super long time to learn to be a good doctor, and even then, the knowledge is constantly evolving. Doctors have limited time. They make mistakes.”

He predicts that Tesla’s Optimus robot will be a better surgeon than the best surgeons on the planet in three years at scale:

“There will probably be more Optimus robots that are great surgeons than there are all surgeons on Earth . . . I mean I’m not like absolutely certain, but I’d say in four years I’d be absolutely certain.”

Elon explains:

“Here’s the thing to understand about humanoid robots in terms of the rate of improvement: you have three exponentials multiplied by each other. You have an exponential increase in the AI software capability, an exponential increase in the AI chip capability, and an exponential increase in the electromechanical dexterity. The usefulness of the humanoid robot is those three things multiplied by each other. Then you have the recursive effect of Optimus building Optimus. So you have a recursive multiplicable, triple exponential. Put a little margin on it, and it’s better than any human in four years. By five years, it’s not even close . . . Everyone will have access to medical care that is better than what the president receives right now.”

He says that you won’t even want a human in the loop:

“We’ve seen some advanced cases of automation, like Lasik for example, where the robot just lasers your eyeball. Now do you want an ophthalmologist with a hand laser? I wouldn’t want the best ophthalmologist with the steadiest hand out there with a hand laser on my eyeball. It’s going to be like that.”

#3 We may see “high double-digit” GDP Growth

“My best guess for how this will manifest is that prices will drop as the efficiency of production increases,” Elon predicts. “Prices in dollar terms are the ratio between the output of goods and services and the money supply. So if your output of goods and services increases faster than the money supply, you will have deflation . . . And I think governments will actually be pushing to increase money supply faster. They won’t be able to waste the money fast enough.”

Elon continues:

“Productivity is going to improve dramatically — it is improving dramatically — and I think we may see high double-digit output of goods and services.”

#4 Money will lose significance and you won’t have to save for retirement

“One side recommendation I have is: don’t worry about squirreling money away for retirement in like 10 or 20 years. It won’t matter.” Elon predicts. “If any of the things we’ve said are true, saving for retirement will be irrelevant.”

Elon explains:

“I don’t just have court side seats — I’m on the court, and it still blows my mind sometimes multiple times a week . . . I think we’ll hit AGI in 2026 . . . And I’m confident that by 2030, AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”

He continues:

“I’ll tell you something that most people in the AI community don’t yet understand. Almost no one understands this. The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing. I think we’re off by two orders of magnitude in terms of intelligence density per gigabyte — characterized by the file size of the AI . . . So two orders of magnitude that’s just algorithmic improvement — same computer. And the computers are getting better. That’s why I think it is a 10x improvement per year type thing. 1,000 percent. And that’s going to happen for the foreseeable future.”